February 2025 Market Review: Key Insights and Highlights
February 2025 has been an eventful month for the markets, with several key factors influencing the financial landscape. As I write this post after-market on the last day of February, it appears that the market will close out the month down by over 1%. The S&P 500® TR Index was down -2.86% for the month through yesterday before posting a return over 1.5% today. This likely brings the S&P 500®, which was down 0.15% year-to-date through yesterday, into slightly positive territory for the year.
Let me break down the main themes and events that have shaped the markets so far this year in a way that's easy to digest and understand.
January 2025 Market Review: Key Insights and Highlights
President Trump began his term with a record-setting 26 executive orders, signaling his readiness to implement immediate and significant structural changes. Diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), energy, immigration, tariffs and technology were some of the key areas of focus.
The U.S. stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 TR Index, continued to rise in January despite delivering over 20% returns in consecutive years. As I write this post, just before the market closes on January 31st, the S&P 500 appears slated to finish the month in the high 2% range. Annualizing that (which I don’t recommend doing) implies another year over 20% for the S&P 500.
2024 U.S. Equity Market Recap and 2025 Outlook
2024 was marked by resilience in the U.S. economy and strong performance in the stock market despite continued geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainties, and fluctuating inflation. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at a solid 3.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, underpinned by robust consumer spending, which benefited from rising household wealth and steady real wage gains. Inflation moderated over the year, with headline CPI declining from 3.3% to 2.7% by November, allowing the Federal Reserve to initiate a long-awaited easing cycle with 100 basis points of rate cuts. However, the pace of disinflation slowed in the latter part of the year, highlighting persistent price pressures in sectors like shelter and auto insurance.